Election 2026: Cooper leads Whatley by 12% in Catawba poll
Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 47%-35% in new polling of their battle to win a seat from North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
Inside the numbers, those saying they are independent – the state’s largest voting bloc at just over 40% – are 48%-28% for Cooper.
The poll of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, done in conjunction with YouGov, was conducted Sept. 4-15, weighting 1,000 adults online and offering a sample of 885 likely voters in the Senate race. There is a +/- 3.6% margin of error.
“When you take those likely voters and ask the undecideds who they are leaning toward, the double-digit lead remains, with Cooper at 48% and Whatley at 37%,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College in Salisbury, and professor of politics and history. “Typically, by this point in the campaign, North Carolina’s statewide elections will begin to tighten, as the respective partisan bases go to their party’s candidate.
“Among Democrats, 85% are supporting Cooper, while among Republicans, 79% are supporting Whatley. The deciding factor in North Carolina’s statewide elections, however, are the independents, and they are currently breaking to Cooper by 20 percentage points, 48% to 28%.”
More inside the numbers, Cooper gets a 5% edge with white and non-Hispanic voters, and a 60% edge with Blacks. With women, Cooper is 18% better. He’s also ahead in male voters.
It’s tied in rural counties, and Whatley commands a 10% lead in suburban counties around major urban counties.
The unflattering opinion of second-term Republican President Donald Trump continues to sink. In June, the same pollster had him minus-11 on the approval rating (54% disapprove, 43% approve) and Wednesday’s release for September moved it to minus-14 (55% disapprove, 41% approve).
Asked their opinion, 32% of respondents said Republicans would maintain majorities in both congressional chambers, and 28% said Democrats would capture both.
This U.S. Senate seat is viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for a majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races. Two of those are special elections, the other 33 are in regular rotation.
Absentee voting began on Sept. 4 with the mailing of ballots to the nearly 50,000 requesting them, opening a 61-day window to Nov. 3. Oct. 9 is the voter registration deadline.
Absentee requests do not require a reason; anyone can file with their respective counties. The deadline for an absentee ballot in the mail to be in a county election board office is when the polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Nov. 3; the request deadline is 5 p.m. on Oct. 20.
Early in-person voting is Oct. 15-31, and same-day registration is permitted.
Partly Sunny
