Latest polls: Key Texas races statistically tied

By Bethany Blankley
The Center Square

Several Democratic candidates have razor thin leads over more well-funded Republicans in key races that are now considered statistically tied.

Democratic voters also appear to be more enthusiastic about the midterm elections than Republicans are, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.

The Nov. 3 election is an “historically close election in Texas” across the board, the poll says. “Several Democratic candidates are enjoying razor-thin polling leads over their more well-funded Republican opponents amidst a clear partisan enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.”

This is as voters are not excited about either party but Democrats are more so of their candidates, the polling found.

“As Texas voters consider many first-time statewide candidates up and down the ballot, they remain largely underwhelmed by the major political parties,” UT/TPP’s director, Jim Henson, said. Voters hold negative views of Republicans and Democrats.

“After more than two decades of Republicans holding a monopoly on statewide elected offices and majority control of both houses of the state legislature, views of the Republican Party remain mixed. In the latest poll, 41% had a favorable view of the Republican Party while 48% had an unfavorable view, for a net favorability of -7,” he wrote.

Voters hold a more negative view of Democrats but it may not be enough for them to lose.

“Texans’ favorability ratings of the Democratic Party are more underwater than ratings of the GOP: 34% expressed favorable views while 51% expressed unfavorable views, producing a net favorability of -17. Even as Democratic candidates performed competitively in the trial ballots made up of likely voters, the overall brand of their party continues to suffer. The gap in assessments of the party in the overall sample hints at the enthusiasm deficit among Texas Republicans that is powerfully influencing statewide polling.”

Lack of enthusiasm for candidates is what is hurting Republicans, the polling indicates. Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidates and about voting.

As a result, in key statewide races that were once considered safe Republican wins, Republicans are trailing and/or statistically tied, the polling found.

In the governor’s race, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is facing “unprecedented competition” from Democrat state Rep. Gina Hinosoja. In a trial ballot, the two are statistically tied. The UT/TPP poll says the race is “effectively tied at this late stage in the campaign, with Hinojosa holding a statistically insignificant one-point lead over the incumbent, 49% to 48%.”

Hinojosa also leads among Independents, with 67% support compared to Abbott’s 17%.

Hinojosa leads Abbott among Latinos, urban and women voters. Abbott leads among suburban, rural and male voters, according to the poll.

Abbott, who is running for his fourth term, has never been statistically tied in his political career. He’s won elections and been reelected by large margins.

The race for lieutenant governor is also statistically tied.

For the first time in his political career, incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is also trailing in the polls. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin, is leading by 3 points, 49% to 46%. Other candidates account for 5% of the vote.

The race for attorney general is also statistically tied. Democrat state Rep. Nathan Johnson leads Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton by one point, 48% to 47%, within the margin of error.

The race for state comptroller is also statistically tied. Republican Don Huffines is leading Democrat state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt by one point, 47% to 46%, within the margin of error.

The race for Texas Railroad Commissioner is also statistically tied. Republican Bo French, who has not backed down from his remarks about Texans and ethnic and religious groups, leads Democrat state Rep. Jon Rosenthal by one point, 48% to 47%, within the margin of error.

All Republicans in these races have dropped in the polls over the last few months. They previously held leads of five points or more.

The outlier is the U.S. Senate race where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is trailing by several points to Democrat state Rep. James Talarico. This is consistent with every poll conducted over the last few months. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton trails State Rep. James Talarico. While other polls show larger margins, UT/TPPP trial ballot has Talarico leading by three points.

Also similar to other polls, Independent voters prefer Talarico 69% to Paxton 11%. Talarico also leads Paxton among Latino, urban, suburban and women voters; rural and male voters favor Paxton.