Poll: Majority of Americans say U.S. consumers pay tariff costs
Most American voters say U.S. consumers ultimately pay for tariffs, a new national poll found. The White House says foreign exporters do.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll found 58% of registered voters said U.S. consumers pay most of the cost of tariffs through higher prices. Sixteen percent said U.S. companies that import goods pay the tariffs, 15% said foreign countries or foreign companies do, and 11% weren’t sure.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 47% said U.S. consumers pay, more than double the 22% who said foreign countries do. The same group backed the tariffs 66% to 25% when asked whether they would support duties that helped protect some American industries but increased prices for U.S. households and businesses. Overall, voters split 42% support to 46% oppose.
“The Trump administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told The Center Square.
Phillip W. Magness, a senior fellow and the David J. Theroux Chair in Political Economy at the Independent Institute, said the poll shows voters have it right.
“Americans have correctly detected that tariffs on imports come from their own wallets,” he told The Center Square.
The empirical literature on Trump’s tariffs has consistently found that upward of 90% of the burden falls on the U.S. economy, and mainly on consumers, Magness said.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in February 2026 that foreign exporters absorb 5% of tariff costs and that U.S. consumers bear the rest through higher prices. CBO told Congress in May 2026 that more recent evidence indicated the foreign share may have risen to 10% to 15% by the end of 2025.
Magness said the 15% who named foreign countries are “almost certainly repeating something that they’ve heard from figures in the White House.”
He pointed to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Stephen Miran, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers and served as a Federal Reserve governor. Magness said their argument rests on a misunderstanding of international trade theory and has found no empirical support in studies of tariff incidence.
The Tax Foundation estimates the current tariffs raise taxes by an average of $820 per household in 2026, down from about $1,000 in 2025. The Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in February 2026.
The Center Square has asked the White House five times since May whether it has estimated what the tariffs cost American consumers, including four times since August about the cost to the average household. The White House has not answered.
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell 19.9% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, as exports rose 11.8% and imports 4.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A White House official pointed to those figures.
That comparison runs against an inflated 2025 base, when importers rushed shipments ahead of the tariffs. BEA reported the monthly deficit at $105.6 billion in August 2026, up from $92.8 billion in July 2026.
Magness said the Republican numbers show voters are separating the policy from the explanation offered for it. Republicans “are not buying the White House’s talking points about foreigners paying for tariffs, even as many of them still back Trump’s policies in this arena for different reasons,” he said.
Support also varied by income. Voters earning less than $50,000 a year opposed the tariffs 48% to 36%, while voters earning more than $100,000 split 49% to 46% in favor.
Magness cautioned that the question’s reference to protecting American industries likely lifted support, noting that language about protection has historically boosted tariff numbers in polls. He said he expects support to fall as more Americans conclude the tariffs are not delivering that protection.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 5-7, surveying 2,527 registered U.S. voters. Respondents included 1136 Republicans, 1171 Democrats and 229 True Independents, (Independents who, when asked if they leaned towards one of the major parties, chose neither). The margin of error is plus or minus 1.95 percentage points.
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