Pollster: Two Arizona races may determine House control
Arizona has two congressional races that could determine which party controls the U.S. House, according to a pollster.
Both races are focusing on issues such as taxes, the economy and immigration enforcement as Democrats work to take back the U.S. House in the Nov. 3 general election. Republicans currently control the House with a four-seat majority over Democrats: 218 to 214.
Noble Predictive Insights CEO Mike Noble said Arizona’s 6th and 1st congressional districts are competitive races that could decide whether Democrats control the House.
He told The Center Square that NPI’s internal model showed the Democrats with a slight advantage in these races.
NPI’s internal model said Democrats are up 1 percentage point in the 6th District and 3 percentage points in the 1st District.
With still over three weeks until Election Day, Noble said that with the amount of money being spent in these battleground districts, campaigns can still influence people’s votes until then.
Noble said Arizona is no longer a reliable Republican state.
6th Congressional DistrictU.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Casa Grande, is currently going up against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District race.The congressman told The Center Square that, if reelected, he would continue to support tax-cutting policies that made things more affordable for Arizonans.Ciscomani, who has represented the 6th District since 2022, highlighted his support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the 2025 measure that created tax cuts and sought to eliminate government waste, fraud and abuse. Beyond lowering taxes, Ciscomani said he would try to turn President Donald Trump’s border-security executive orders into law.In Trump’s second term, Ciscomani said “practically” no illegal immigrants are being released into Arizona communities, which was a major issue under the Biden administration.Ciscomani said Congress needs to turn Trump’s executive orders into laws so another Joe Biden-type president doesn’t reopen America’s border.The representative, who is originally from Mexico, also told The Center Square that he supports a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and reforming America’s immigration law.Arizona’s 6th Congressional District is home to an estimated 80,000 veterans, the ninth-largest veteran population in America, Ciscomani said. He noted he would continue to push policies that help veterans.Ciscomani has sponsored or cosponsored bills that expand veterans’ job training and education benefits, streamline the Veterans Affairs home loan process and help develop individual healthcare plans for veterans on VA healthcare and Medicare.Regarding his opponent, Ciscomani called her “too liberal” for the district. The Center Square reached out to Mendoza, but she did not respond before publication time.Mendoza served in the U.S. Marines for more than 20 years and has held numerous leadership roles in the nonprofit sector.As a candidate, Mendoza supports workers’ right to unionize and expanding workforce training and apprenticeships in Arizona, according to her campaign website. In her debate with Ciscomani, she said she did not think billionaires should be getting tax breaks.Mendoza also said during the debate that she supports immigration reform. Her website says the Democrat supports “deporting violent criminals” and creating a pathway to citizenship for noncitizens already in America. The website also says she supports expanding Veteran Affairs services in rural areas, expanding veteran housing support and increasing mental health services for veterans.Mendoza has raised $7.4 million for her campaign, while Ciscomani has brought in $6.2 million, according to Federal Election Commission records.Mendoza received $720,350 from the House Victory Project 2026, which is a Democratic joint fundraising committee. She has also received large donations from ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising platform the federal government is currently investigating for alleged illegal campaign contributions.FEC records show Ciscomanni has received $693,500 from the Ciscomani Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee associated with the representative. He also received $830,123 from the Grow Majority joint fundraising committee associated with House Speaker Mike Johnson and $367,500 from the Defend Our Majority, another Republican joint fundraising committee.
1st District race
In the state’s 1st District, Republican Jay Feely is facing off against former Democratic State Rep. Amish Shah, D-Phoenix, to replace U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale, who lost the Republican primary in the gubernatorial race to U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs.
The Center Square reached out to Feeley and Shah, but neither responded before publication time.
Feely, a former NFL kicker, says on his campaign website that he supports reducing regulations, expanding tax cuts and increasing domestic manufacturing.
Shah, a doctor, supports eliminating tariffs, according to his campaign website. In August, Shah said the 2025 tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill should be repealed, calling the bill “abominable.”
At last week’s debate, Shah said he supported no-tax policies for tips and overtime, adding that he supports cutting taxes for working people, not billionaires.
On data centers, Feely said he supports them. At the debate, he noted the centers could add $27 billion to the state’s gross domestic product and bring in $1 billion in tax revenue. Shah said he did not support data centers in District 1, despite voting for tax breaks for the industry as a state legislator.
Project 48 Arizona, an Arizona research organization, said data centers would produce more than $1 billion in state and local tax revenues, as well as more than 20,000 jobs. It cited data from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
On immigration, Feely said on his campaign website he supports finishing America’s border wall and deporting violent offenders.
Shah said at the debate that he does not believe in “open borders,” noting he doesn’t support illegal immigration. However, he said he supports a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and a “guest worker program.”
And Shah’s campaign website says he supports universal healthcare. Feely said he supports market-driven healthcare solutions, such as price transparency measures.
According to FEC records, Feely has raised more than Shah: $2.5 million to $1.8 million. Feely also has more cash on hand than Shan: $794,475 to $401,745.
Feely donated $330,000 of his own money to his campaign while also receiving large sums from Republican joint fundraising committees such as Grow the Majority and Emmer Majority Builders.
Grow the Majority has given Feely $84,018, and Emmer Majority Builders, which is associated with House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Delano, Minn., has donated $181,286.
Like Feely, Shah self-financed part of his campaign. FEC records show he donated $430,655. This represents nearly 25% of his total donations.
Shah has also received $33,033 from the IA Victory Fund, a Democratic joint fundraising committee, and $53,661 from 314 Action Impact Slate, a Democratic fundraising committee that gives money to candidates with science and medical backgrounds.
Other congressional races
Beyond the 1st and 6th districts, seven other Arizona congressional races are taking place.
In the 2nd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Eli Crane, R-Flagstaff, will compete against Democrat Jonathan Nez.
In the 3rd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Phoenix, will face Republican write-in candidate Jacob Parkman, Green Party candidate David Redkey and No-Labels candidate Alan Aversa.
District 4 sees U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Tempe, facing Republican Zuhdi Jasser. In District 5, U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Lee, D-Gilbert, will face Republican Mark Lamb.
In the 7th District, U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Casa Grande, will go up against Republican Daniel Butierez in a rematch. Grijalva beat Butierez in the special election on Sept. 23, 2025, to serve the rest of the term of her father, U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Tucson, who died earlier that year.
U.S. Rep. Abe Hamadeh, R-Surprise, seeks reelection against Democratic challenger Bernadette Greene-Placentia in the state’s 8th Congressional District.
In District 9, U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Buckeye, will face Democrat Dani Sterbinsky.
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